Blu-ray, change strategy or lose!

[teamerickson]

See Link.

http://www.dvdtown.com/news/blu-ray-change-strategy-or-lose/4767

 

[JoeSp]

Read the latest NPD figures. They don't show what you're trying to sell. And if there is a $399 BD player on the market this XMAS (and God forbid a $299 BD player) then the current leader will begin to pull away. And that leader today is not HD-DVD!

 

[gchasse]

I think the article is right on. Sony does need to adjust or this is going to change direction. The numbers now don't mean as much as they will as time goes on because sales volumes will continue to rise.

If Sony does not make an adjustment and makes the same mistake they did back in the 80s with the Betamax, they will lose out. Their price strategy of charging more can work for some of their products, but not in this circumstance.

I am waiting on the sidelines to see who comes out on top before making a purchase. I hope this ends soon, but the way Sony is behaving, they seem intent on dragging this on instead of making a knockout blow. In the end, it may cost them dearly.

 

[r.jones1116]

Bluray disc isle at Best Buy will start looking like their UMD display.

 

[teamerickson]

Read the latest NPD figures. They don't show what you're trying to sell. And if there is a $399 BD player on the market this XMAS (and God forbid a $299 BD player) then the current leader will begin to pull away. And that leader today is not HD-DVD!

HD DVD is still the standalone leader with a 58% share sold to date. It looks as though BD is selling a few more recently but HD DVD still has the largest share of the market.

 

[JoeSp]

They also had the largest share of the market in discs sales until March of this year and since then they have been in second with no movement on taking the lead back. The very fact that every two months BD standalones has chipped away at the HD-DVD standalone lead suggests that BD standalones are indeed outselling HD-DVD standalones currently. If the percentage keeps going down eventually BD will be leading in standalones too.

 

[tonyp56]

Blah, come on people.

Blu-Ray or HD-DVD aren't moving, together or apart. Keep hearing "2 to 1" lead in favor of Blu-Ray, but when you have 3 products, 2 of which is Blu-Ray, you've got, 3 products. Now, if the numbers where 3,000,000 to 1,000,000, then you could start talking about how Blu-Ray is winning (or vice-versa and HD-DVD is winning).


Neither is winning, neither is busting down the gates, and neither is really making up any ground. Together or worse yet separately.

Keep hearing "wait until holidays season." Wait? Aren't we starting the holiday season? Isn't Christmas 07 right around the corner? Come on, it isn't going to change in less than 3 months, a year, and maybe not even in two years. How big is HDTV in American households? Sure, some of you out there might own 5 HDTV's, but the question is, how many Americans have one HDTV (all of you out there with 5 HDTV's shouldn't be counted 5 times, just once)? And out of those, how many even know what HD is? Better yet, how many, out of the ones that know what HD is, are going to buy any HD receivers (satellite, OTA, Blu-Ray or HD-DVD) in the next year?

When you can give solid numbers answering those questions, then you've got to ask, which format are they going to buy?

If, 100,000 people were to purchase some sort of HDTV receiver (again, satellite, ota, HD-DVD, or Blu-Ray), and out of all of them, 100% were buying either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD, and you kept the current 2 to 1 ratio in favor of Blu-Ray, that means approx. 66,000 Blu-Ray sales and about 33,000 HD-DVD. Not very big IMHO. Fill in the 100,000 number with anything reasonable (no 500,000,000,000) and really, the numbers come out the same, neither format does good, though Blu-Ray does have a lead. Sure, a lead is a lead, but if I make $2,667 and you make $5,333 a year, you can hardly brag that you've got a huge lead over me. Or that you are doing that much better than me financially. However, if the 2 to 1 lead is larger, say me making $26,667 a year and you making $53,333 a year, there is no doubt that you are doing better than me, and that you'd actually be able to live better than me. Expenetial, with every increase, the gap changes. 20% of $1 is a smaller number than 20% of $100,000.

Same thing happening with HD-DVD versus Blu-Ray. Yes, Blu-Ray has lead, but a lead with a very small number. I mean a small number plus a little bit bigger number, is still a small number.

 

[JoeSp]

Tonyp56, I wonder if when all the OTA stations go digital in 2009 if that will make a differance in the sales numbers for BD and HD-DVD. Some of the stations around Raleigh, NC have begun an advertising campaign about Digital TV and HD. As people become more informed they will also become more interested in one of the HD movie formats. Maybe then we will begin to see big numbers for one or both of these formats.

 

[CochiseGuy]

Tonyp56, I wonder if when all the OTA stations go digital in 2009 if that will make a differance in the sales numbers for BD and HD-DVD. Some of the stations around Raleigh, NC have begun an advertising campaign about Digital TV and HD. As people become more informed they will also become more interested in one of the HD movie formats. Maybe then we will begin to see big numbers for one or both of these formats.

The mandate for ending analog OTA broadcasts - if they don't push it back for a 4th time - will only affect those folks who rely solely on antenna for TV programing. Not to belittle the beauty of OTA HD - I have an antenna for OTA digital, but only because my Dish HD package offers Tucson locals only in dismal SD. But, do you really think that the folks who rely on rabbit ears or an antenna on the roof as their only source of content for their TV's are the primary market for High Def optical disk players?

Pure speculation on my part, but I suspect those folks are more the primary target for the government subsidy for digital/analog converter boxes.

 

[navychop]

Small numbers matter because this "war" will be decided at the small number level: 1%-2% is my guess. Nobody wants to get invested in large numbers and then see one die. Yes, both might survive, but I doubt it. More likely, one wins or both remain niche products like SACD & DVD-Audio.


The digital transition date is in law now, as a specific date. Previously it was stated in terms that led to various interpretations, and was vague. It would take another law to change it. And it's too late for that, since the auction of the spectrum is well in process. The FCC is setting the rules now. Anyway, the proceeds from that auction are already in the budget forecasts, and Congress isn't going to forego billions they've already spent in their minds.

 

[tonyp56]

Small numbers matter because this "war" will be decided at the small number level: 1%-2% is my guess. Nobody wants to get invested in large numbers and then see one die. Yes, both might survive, but I doubt it. More likely, one wins or both remain niche products like SACD & DVD-Audio.

I agree with you here, it is a small numbers thing. (if 50 million adapted HD-DVD or Blu-Ray and then tomorrow one or the other died? All the investment would be wasted--in many regards, but perhaps not all together) I also agree that there isn't enough room for both to be main stream. Either one dies or both remain, like you said, niche products.

However, to "win" a war, one format has to pull ahead of the other, in real numbers (enough that it makes it crazy to consider the other format), and you won't get that until the overall demand for hi-def discs dramatically increase. Now, do I expect that to be the same level of DVD's tomorrow? Of course not. How many years did it take DVDs to reach the level they are now? (more or less as soon as VHS was killed off recently, before that even DVD's could be considered "niche")

IMO, until the demand doubles (perhaps triples) for hi-def video, this war will continue. Even if, all studios were nautral, and all manufacturers were neutral, prices for hardware were the same, and you could equally get every movie on both formats, I don't see demand going up that much--together or separately. Because simply, the demand for HDTV in general--let alone Hi-def home movies--is so low. Although, I do believe demand would go up some, just not enough to push the "win" in one formats camp or the others.

Additionally, in todays ever changing landscape, if something isn't adapted quickly, it runs the risk of being out-dated before it ever gets off of the first floor. Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, IMHO, are both on the first floor (I'll grant Blu-Ray may be closer to the second, right now) and they've already been out for a while. What is to say, by the time either of them start making up ground, something else comes out that beats them to the punch? In this instance, they might be niche, but for all purposes, dead. Then the investment by consumers, manufactors, studios, etc. in both formats will have been wasted.

 

[tonyp56]

Tonyp56, I wonder if when all the OTA stations go digital in 2009 if that will make a differance in the sales numbers for BD and HD-DVD. Some of the stations around Raleigh, NC have begun an advertising campaign about Digital TV and HD. As people become more informed they will also become more interested in one of the HD movie formats. Maybe then we will begin to see big numbers for one or both of these formats.

Eventually, I'd say it would. However, even 2009 is almost 2 years away, and if you added say a year to that before it got peoples attention, your looking at 3 years before either or both formats could have some numbers that really mean something.

A lot could change in those 3 years (or nothing), something new could come out that pushes both formats off the cliff. Never know. Also, got to remember, even when analog OTA stations go dark, that don't mean everyone is going to go out and buy a HDTV and DTV receiver. Some have analog/digital cable or satellite which won't require an HDTV to view programming. Others can get box from goverment for cheap that allows them to keep their SDTV TV. Not to mention, they sell digital SDTV's right now. So the need to buy a HD disc player for their SDTV, is very unlikely.

Will demand go up? Of course, but at what pace. And what risk do both formats have of becomming old technology?

 

[meStevo]

I think it makes a lot of sense that as 2009 hits (that's only 14 months) and those on the fence upgrade to HD or nicer televisions we see a surge in HD-Disc area as people look to maximize their new investment. Makes that 18 months of Paramount exclusivity a lot more significant too.

For many of those people, it will require the HD hardware to be less 'investment' and more 'accessory for TV' type of pricing. Surely BD hardware will be reduced in price by then, but will HDDVD hardware keep falling to be more of a impulse-buy no-brainer purchase for this new crowd of HD content watchers?