Paramount did own the week when the other side had to give away half of their discs just to tie.
Personal Take on Nielson 10/14 - 10/21 Results - AVS ForumUPDATED:
I have attached a .ZIP file containing two files:
- Sales Ratios.htm
(this is an updated version of the calculations below, using STRICTLY mathematical formulas, replacing all of my variables with a designated letter.
- Sales Ratio Calculator.xls
You can input any numbers you want into the YELLOW fields, and it will calculate the totals accordingly. (for example, based on most of my estimates below, Blu Ray would have had to only have 7% of their sales for the week as B1G1 units in order to make more gross income than HD DVD)
Feel free to play with it all you like, but DON'T modify the Greyed-out fields on your own unless you want to play with the formulas.
UPDATE: added new version of calculator to include HD DVD B1G1 percentage.
I posted this over at DVDTalk, but I figured it was worth posting here.
I should note that I'm not trying to force my perspective on people, but rather, see what I can come up with. I only state one of the ratios as fact, along with my final conclusions. Everything else is pure speculation. My numbers may not be accurate, but, based on the 51:49 ratio, you could throw any numbers in there, and you will have a similar result.
With that said, here comes the math (slightly revised from my DVDTalk version)...
Fact: BD units outsold HD units by a 51:49 ratio between 10/14 and 10/21
Fixed Ratio: 1.0408163265306:1
To make that number fit into the real world, let's assume that 200,000 HD DVDs were sold. That means there were 208,200 BDs sold.
We also have to assume an average price for discs sold before the B1G1 discount was applied. Assuming no expensive box sets were sold, I think a fair average price is $25.00. You can input any number you want, but the results will end up similar anyway. I am also going to assume that 50% of the BD units were sold in the B1G1 sale. I will calculate this as 104,100 units sold at 50% off (price is higher than B1G1 logic if second item is below the price of the 'purchased' item)
NOTE: I know that there are a lot of assumptions, but I'm attempting to be very conservative, if not realistic.
Okay, here we go...
Part I: Market Share
208,200 BD units = (104,100 units @ $25.00) + (104,100 units @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $2,602,500 + $1,301,250
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750 spent on BD
200,000 HD units = 200,000 units @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000 spent on HD
$8,903,750 spent on HDM between 10/14 and 10/21.
BD Market Share = 43.844%
HD Market Share = 56.156%
Part II: Sale price of discs
208,200 BD units = (104,100 BD units @ $25.00) + (104,100 units @ $12.50)
208,200 BD units = $3,903,750
1 BD unit = $18.50
200,000 HD units = 200,000 HD units @ $25.00
200,000 HD units = $5,000,000
1 HD unit = $25.00 (no change of result, obviously)
408,200 HDM units sold between 10/14 and 10/21
208,200 BD units sold @ ~ $18.50
200,000 HD units sold @ ~ $25.00
Part III: Customers
Let's assume that each customer who utilized the B1G1 sale only purchased one set of movies (ie. 2 units per customer). We will also assume that each customer who didn't utilize the B1G1 sale only purchased one item. This is definitely a conservative number, but I'm trying to give BD the upper hand.
208,200 BD units sold = (104,100 BD units) + (104,100 BD units @ B1G1)
208,200 BD units sold = 104,100 customers + 52,050 customers
208,200 BD units sold = 156,150 BD customers
200,000 HD units sold = 200,000 HD units
200,000 HD units sold = 200,000 HD customers
356,150 HDM customers between 10/14 and 10/21
156,150 BD customers bought items @ ~ $18.50
200,000 HD customers bought items @ ~ $25.00
Thus, despite my assumed numbers (which are in favour of Blu Ray), I conclude that in the week of 10/14 to 10/21:
1. HD DVD had the higher Market Share
2. HD DVD had higher prices
3. HD DVD, despite the Blu Ray B1G1 sale, had at least 28% more customers buying product, even at higher prices
Edit: Adding a fourth conclusion
4. Blu Ray would have had to sell an extra 30% of their total units (half at half-off, half at average price)to match HD DVDs Market Share
Counter point. Lets tally up Sony's payoffs to their studios? Im sure its far more than 150 mill. And BTW you need to divide that 150 mill by the number of weeks Paramount is to be exclusive.Ok, counterpoint, the only reason HDDVD would have "owned" the week is because they paid $150 mil to "own" it. One better than the other? Not.
HDDVD got a taste of their own medicine, funny thing is it cost BD much less than $150mil to win the week
Same thing. Theres more than one way to "buy" exclusivity. And how would you know they didnt pay anyone cash?
60% of those polled must be kidding themselves then Personal Take on Nielson 10/14 - 10/21 Results - Page 4 - AVS Forum BTW BOGO was advertised on every BD forum I have seen. Bluray.com, thedigitalbits, AVS, Satguys, Hidefdigest, etc. Considering this is a next gen format, 90% of the owners are very very very tech savy and well informed. I myself recently bought a PS3 and purchased 2 BD's and 2 free. Its so obvious as to what happened, but keep your head in the sand. ANy studio like WB looking closely at the sales data last week has to be looking at going HD DVD exclusive. Even giving away 1/2 of their movies BD barely won the week. The facts are BD saw this coming and had to run the BOGO promotion just to keep it even and in doing so they inflate their numbers with movies they gave away for free.
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