Seagate CEO: Blu-ray won the battle but lost the war

[diogen]

Seagate CEO: Blu-ray won the battle but lost the war | Tech news blog - CNET News.com

What he's actually saying, both HD/BD lost:

"People are saying Blu-ray won the war but who cares? The war is over physical distribution versus electrical distribution and Blu-ray and HD lost that," he said during a breakfast meeting at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas this week. "In this, flash memory and hard drives are on the same side. The war is over and the physical guys lost."

Very opinionated guy...

Diogen.

 

[r.jones1116]

Opinionated and dead on (except his views on immigration reform) .

 

[navychop]

Perhaps in the long run. But most people simply can't effectively download an HD movie today. It's an overnight kind of thing, if at all. And it's yet to be shown that they will pay for a download that will presumably actually be a rental, not a purchase- and not have a piece of physical media they can retain.

 

[berck]

Very opinionated guy...

He should fit in well around here ...

 

[diogen]

What I never thought about is the link between "surveilance society" and hard drive business (you have to store the video somewhere!).
Might be a good idea to buy some LEAPS of the hard drive manufacturers...

Diogen.

 

[gadgtfreek]

While I dont disagree HD downloads are coming, I think its 5 yrs away before it really would take off if we are talking mass adoption. Plenty of time to enjoy HDM

 

[schapman68]

I cant believe the Seagate CEO believes the hard drive won. who'd thought that?

Seagate CEO: Blu-ray won the battle but lost the war | Tech news blog - CNET News.com

What he's actually saying, both HD/BD lost:


Very opinionated guy...

Diogen.

 

[berck]

While I dont disagree HD downloads are coming, I think its 5 yrs away before it really would take off if we are talking mass adoption. Plenty of time to enjoy HDM

In some forms, HD downloads are already here. Just not for permanent purchase. Comcast does VOD and has many programs in HD. It streams well, so you don't have to wait long before the program starts.

Now, purchasing and keeping HD is a different animal, and I don't see that happening soon either. Not just the internet speeds, but the storage needed to save the movie. An HD movie will be large and need lots of space. This model worked for music because many collections of music are stored in less than a few GB's of space and can be copied and stored to different devices.

I just don't see the Movie industry being as flexible as the Music industry along those lines. Not that the Music industry has been super flexible, but everything about the Movie industry indicates high content control , which will hobble download acceptance.

 

[JoeSp]

J6Pack is just now understanding how to get his VCR to work with his Settop box. How in the world is he going to understand how to download a HD movie onto a hard drive and is he going to do this when he might not be able to keep it there?

 

[akodoreign]

In some forms, HD downloads are already here. Just not for permanent purchase. Comcast does VOD and has many programs in HD. It streams well, so you don't have to wait long before the program starts.

Now, purchasing and keeping HD is a different animal, and I don't see that happening soon either. Not just the internet speeds, but the storage needed to save the movie. An HD movie will be large and need lots of space. This model worked for music because many collections of music are stored in less than a few GB's of space and can be copied and stored to different devices.

I just don't see the Movie industry being as flexible as the Music industry along those lines. Not that the Music industry has been super flexible, but everything about the Movie industry indicates high content control , which will hobble download acceptance.

For shows MS offers downloading and keeping of all video over Xbox live. Now with that being said 120gig HD that it has gets filled up fast. But they allow you to delete and re-download any shows you want. As many time as you want so long as you have paid for them the fist time .

Movies are buy them then play them within 14 days, and once you play them they expire 24 hours later.
240 points for SD movies = $2.99
480 points for HD movies = $5.98

Shows vary by cost and quality (HD or SD)

 

[diogen]

How in the world is he going to understand how to download a HD movie onto a hard drive...?

The chances of this to happen are about as high/low as explaining to him that this new breed of discs called BD offers
a so much better picture and sound that he should get a new $300+ player and pay 50% more for each movie.
And while he is at it, getting a new receiver, 7 speakers and a sub wouldn't hurt since it is also needed to hear the difference.

Diogen.

 

[gadgtfreek]

I dont think its an understanding as much as the ability. Everyone continues to assume houses are wireless/wired. Everyone I know has a single dsl/cable modem tied to the pc. They know jack about a wireless network and dont care. I personally dropped cable and went with verizon pc cards, so my place is wireless .

It wont be a matter of flipping a switch and BAM, everyone will be downloading movies. The music downloads took years, most were better off pirating in the beginning because download stores had crappy selections. Movies will be the same way.

I do like the idea of downloading a HD movie to a pc, then transferring it to a usb drive. Take that usb drive and connect it to you tv and watch your movie. They could even develop an hdmi to usb adapter that keeps you from need a tv with a usb port. Now how they secure it is another issue.

 

[berck]

Interesting, so they control when the movie is on your hard drive. No flags for leaving it as long as you want?

 

[vurbano]

J6Pack is just now understanding how to get his VCR to work with his Settop box. How in the world is he going to understand how to download a HD movie onto a hard drive and is he going to do this when he might not be able to keep it there?

Wrong.

 

[diogen]

First, there is a difference between audio and video.
If you like a song, you might play it a couple times a day.
If you really like a movie, you might watch it 1-2 times a month.
If you knew you can watch any movie at any time (VOD) for let's say $3, would you insist on having a hard copy? What about $1? What about Netflix VOD?

Second, why is VOD/download always associated with a PC?
What about having a hard drive in your TV (Toshiba was talking about it a year ago)?
What about your PVR (cable/satellite) doing it? TiVo?
What about making those HD DVD players VOD movies (it is essentially a PC)?

Diogen.

 

[r.jones1116]

What about XstreamHD or VuDu?

 

[IcEWoLF]

Give us all Fiber optics.
Until everyone has Fios HD downloadable content will fail.
He didn't mention if your HDD fails your *****ed.

To me for now its clear that Blu-ray won the format war...sorry to break your bubble.

People care on whats happening now, not 5-10 years from now.

 

[ocnier]

Give us all Fiber optics.
Until everyone has Fios HD downloadable content will fail.
He didn't mention if your HDD fails your *****ed.

That's why there's products out there coming to market like the drobo.

 

[IcEWoLF]

That's why there's products out there coming to market like the drobo.

Like I said this market will fail for another 5-10 years, by then blu-ray will be the market giant.

 

[navychop]

I think M$ is counting on IPTV style downloads, where M$ can make some money. 5-10 years away from beginning to spread to the mainstream. At least. Fat broadband pipes to the masses won't be here any sooner. Verizon has already started, and how far do you think they'll be in even 10 years?

And the prices I've read don't appear cheap. Certainly cheaper than owning- but you only get to see it once, and poof! If a rental costs 1/3 the cost of buying, and you have to start downloading several hours before viewing, is it worth it?

And for best effect for AQ, those new receivers and speakers would be needed anyway. Some will upgrade. Some/most won't. Either for dl or BD.