Will prices now come down?

[JoeSp]

Toshiba now seems destined to end their HD-DVD support and once that happens BD will become the flag bearer for HDM on disc. I expect Toshiba to bring a top quality BD player to the market that is 2.0 compliant and I hope it is at a great price.

That said, I think that we should start seeing much lower prices both players and media by this summer. My reasoning is that once Toshiba announces that they are no longer supporting HD-DVD which in-effect would end the HD-DVD forum and thus allow Universal, Paramount and Dreamworks to put their movies on BD, then consumers who were setting on the sidelines would start jumping in.

When that happens I expect with increased sales and increased competition for those consumers that CE manufacturers would start passing along some of those savings they are now getting with smaller and less expensive componets. I expect to see sub $500 2.0 players by summer and maybe as low as $350 2.0 players by Xmas.

I have also been reading that the BDA now has reduced the cost of the BD-50 discs and I hope that they pass those prices onto the general public. I would like to see BD movies on the shelf at BestBuy - new release - for no more then $24.99 (with new releases for $21.99 just like they discount new releases for DVD now). I have noticed that at Walmart the bulk of new BD releases are selling for $24.99. I now buy most of my BD either from Amazon.com or Walmart and sometimes Walmart is only 1 or 2 dollars more and this includes tax!

All this should happen because Toshiba goes Blu.

 

[allargon]

It will happen if manufacturers abandon unnecessary things like multichannel analog audio outs. (Denon already did but raised the price!)

Doesn't the Blu-Ray spec mandate 1080p out? Too bad. That would allow for lower priced players as well.

 

[gadgtfreek]

I think youll be able to pick up a BD50 on Black Friday for $299. This is a great price for THAT player plus there are a couple of players coming that will be cheaper. Going into 2009 theyll get even better.

We may even see a drop sooner. Now that the entire market can get involved and support one format, should cause the prices to drop faster.

Everyone keeps forgetting that it was a few years before DVD players equalled the price of current HD-DVD players. The ONLY reason HD-DVD players are this cheap is that was one of their strategies to win. Problem is, everyone now thinks the BD manufactures should eat their profit and sell cheap. I disagree.

 

[vurbano]

I expect BD hardware prices to rise.

 

[db2]

Read Bill Hunt's posts on the BD forum. It took 4 years for dvd players to get to $200. We're 2 years into BD and the players are $499 & $399. We should see a $299 player by this holiday season and a $199 player by the '09 holiday season. Same path as DVD. People are making WAY too big of a deal out of this IMHO.

 

[JoeSp]

I expect BD hardware prices to rise.

Vurbano, can you state why you expect BD hardware prices to rise? Just don't make a statement like you always do, explain yourself so that others might understand your stance.

 

[teamerickson]

Vurbano, can you state why you expect BD hardware prices to rise? Just don't make a statement like you always do, explain yourself so that others might understand your stance.

Higher demand, higher prices.

 

[Peter Parker]

In the end as more manufacturers turn to BD, more software is available etc. the prices will drop. VHS prices continued to drop after that format won. the competition simply shifts from one between formats (that frightens many potential customers away) to one where they all compete in the new format. and heck there is a lot of room for volume to lower prices.

While i understand the logic of higher demand raising prices that si not what happened in the color TV format war the VCR format war or any other one that I can recall.

 

[db2]

With HD-DVD losing the red fanboys have nothing left to argue about so this is their new outlet.

The HD-DVD fanboy argument timeline:

1. HD-DVD is better and it's going to win
2. Just wait until Wal-Mart brings in Chinese players...
3. (after Paramount and Dreamworks go red only) HD-DVD is going to win.
4. ($99 HD-DVD player sale) HD-DVD is going to win!
5. (nothing changes) Most HD-DVD players are sitting under the xmas tree, just wait until after xmas...
6. (52+ weeks of losing software sales) HD-DVD and Blu-Ray can coexist
7. (WB goes BD only) It's not over yet, we still have cheap players...
8. (BB and Wal-Mart go BD exclusive) BD players suck! They are expensive and not 2.0 compliant.

 

[tnsprin]

In the end as more manufacturers turn to BD, more software is available etc. the prices will drop. VHS prices continued to drop after that format won. the competition simply shifts from one between formats (that frightens many potential customers away) to one where they all compete in the new format. and heck there is a lot of room for volume to lower prices.

While i understand the logic of higher demand raising prices that si not what happened in the color TV format war the VCR format war or any other one that I can recall.

Yep. Expect MSRP to both fall And rise. New cheap basic units will come out, and some manufacturers will spin there lastest high end models as having superior features. We already see high end Denon models announced at over 2000. I expect some low end models under 200 MSRP announced for Christmas.

If Toshiba has made or does make a deal with BDA on getting out, I would expect them to have models ready very quickly. Could see a B3, B30 and B35.

 

[meStevo]

Read Bill Hunt's posts on the BD forum. It took 4 years for dvd players to get to $200. We're 2 years into BD and the players are $499 & $399. We should see a $299 player by this holiday season and a $199 player by the '09 holiday season. Same path as DVD. People are making WAY too big of a deal out of this IMHO.

Kind of an easy prediction, since aside from that $199 in 09 I expect the PS3 to be at these prices. There'd prolly be a $250 SKU by then and we'd prolly see a BD player below it at $199 probably.

 

[navychop]

I think some folks will enter the HDM market now that it's over. But not hordes, not immediately. And I doubt we'll see immediately lower prices- so I can't explain why J&R and Amazon are running such good deals right now.

Next Xmas we'll probably see a large move into HDM, and increased HDTV sales, as publicity over the digital transition kicks in. I'd expect good price drops by Turkey Day.

But who knows, Toshiba or some other company could decide to get VERY aggressive VERY fast and drop prices earlier. But I expect a pause, some breathing space and recouping of some losses before major price cuts. And they're still ramping up BD production, so there's no real rush to get Paramount and Universal into high gear.

Anybody know the schedule for opening more BD production plants? I haven't seen one for months, but it seems a few were to come on line by summer.

 

[donyoop]

Kind of an easy prediction, since aside from that $199 in 09 I expect the PS3 to be at these prices. There'd prolly be a $250 SKU by then and we'd prolly see a BD player below it at $199 probably.

Expect Blu prices to be halved in two years. Do not expect PS3 prices to be halved in two years. There are just too many reasons for this.

PS3 is just not getting the economies of scale the PS2 got (Wii is just too popular). The standard cost is still way too high, actually at or above retail price. Toshiba owns the cell processor and they certainly will not drop their processor price facing 10s if not 100s of millions of dollars yen equiv. in HD-DVD technology losses.

The five year cycle for game platforms is 2010-2011 for PS-4 and the high def Wii. The big 3 in hardware platforms generally don't release new game platforms any more frequent than that so as not to change the programming model too frequently. Let's not forget the blu nextgen XBox. That's when it will get interesting. Sony certainly needs to get some cost reduction going for PS-3. The only major opportunity I see will be to halve the cost of the blu drive which hopefully will knock $75-$100 off the standard cost of the PS3, but this will just support the $400 price with a small retail profit built in.

Don

 

[navychop]

I believe IBM also produces the cell processor, do they not?

But I agree- not much more room or reason to drop the PS3 price.

Maybe at the end of this year, or more likely next year, I'll get a BD standalone player to go along with my PS3. It'll have to be profile 2 and $400 or less. Actually, the price might be secondary. If I replace one of my large SD CRTs with an HDTV, I'll have to move quickly on another BD player. I'd rather not get another PS3, but money talks.

I'll probably toss a 13" & 19" this year, before the local pols start charging for CRT disposal. That will leave a 27" with a great picture but occasional remote problems (problem is a known issue inside the TV- Sony!) which might also go, and a 36" which I plan to keep many, many years. Any additional HDTV into this house really should have a Blu-ray player with it.

Eventually, as prices decline, I'll probably get another BD player for our camping trailer. It would be foolish not to, once the prices drop to $200. No point in that one being profile 2- but by that time, they'll probably almost all be profile 2.

Heavy demand and limited production may keep HDTV (& maybe BD player prices) from sliding as fast in 2009 as they have to date. That's assuming the digital transition sparks much larger HDTV buying- an uncertain turn of events. Either way, prices should indeed be much cheaper in 2 years.

 

[JoeSp]

Higher demand, higher prices.

Higher demand drives prices down not up. Did not any of you take economics in college? Prices only go up when there is a shortage of product -- there is neither a shortage of product nor is there a shortage of CE manufacturers jumping on board the BD bus.

 

[JohnL]

I expect BD hardware prices to rise.

Vurbano,

Ok Kreskin, we all know your predictions have been so right in the past.

Your Delusional, prices for electronics always go down over time. Chips and Integrated circuits always get smaller and cheaper. This always leads to prices decreasing. Since BD is the default Next Gen Optical Disc player more Brands will jump to manufacture BD players this WILL lead to lower prices.

John

 

[Peter Parker]

Higher demand drives prices down not up. Did not any of you take economics in college? Prices only go up when there is a shortage of product -- there is neither a shortage of product nor is there a shortage of CE manufacturers jumping on board the BD bus.

Actually an increase in demand generally does lead to an increase prices. In the tech sector however it tends not to work that way. The demand for DVD players is highr now than when they first came out but prices have fallen as they did with color TV (which was once considered the ultimate extravagance), VCRS, microwaves and a host of other consumer products.

But don't tell me that the science of economics teaches that an incrase in demand leads to a fall in prices. It leads to higher prices which bring more suppliers into the market thereby increasing supply. But for most commodities there is anet increase in price after a hike in demand.

 

[meStevo]

Higher demand drives prices down not up. Did not any of you take economics in college? Prices only go up when there is a shortage of product -- there is neither a shortage of product nor is there a shortage of CE manufacturers jumping on board the BD bus.

You're describing different things at once.

Demand drives prices up.

Supply helps deflate prices.

They both rely on each other, sure.

 

[JoeSp]

Demand only drives prices up when there is a shortage of product and there is no competition. Please explain where the shortage in BD players is and where there is no competition?

Lets take a look at the new toy on the block the Apple iPhone. Demand is so high most places you have to still get on a waiting list to get one -- and the price has come down as new models have been released.

Reason for this is that there are plenty of cell phones on the market and there are plenty of competitors to Apple for this type of cell phone. As more and more competitors bring their products to the market the prices keep going down. This will happen to BD players too.

 

[Peter Parker]

Joe if you read my post I said that other forced besides the higher demand make the price of tech products drop. but the effect of increase in demand itself is an increase in price. We bth think that price will drop we just disagree about what the effect of an increase in demand is.