Over the Air is still FREE ...
Just because they are holding the providers hostage doesn't mean its not free ...
When the Providers stand up and tell the networks (OTA) that they are not gonna take the rise in prices, things will change .... as long as they allow the networks to demand unreasonable prices for thier FREE OTA channels, it will not.
OK, here's how that would play out. The MVPD (AT&T, DISH, Comcast, whoever) tells the local channels, "We're not paying what you're demanding, so we'll just drop your channel from our line-up." And then a lot of subscribers would flee from that MVPD to another one (or to a vMVPD like YouTube TV or Hulu with Live TV if it DOES carry their locals). It would really hurt the MVPD because local stations affiliated with ABC, NBC, CBS and Fox account for about 30% of all viewers across all channels (broadcast + cable). (See viewer numbers
here.) Those are, by far, the four most popular networks in the country and people very much want access to their programming.
Sure, those local stations affiliated with the big broadcast nets are available for free but only IF you go to the hassle of using an antenna to receive them (and given the type of OTA transmission system the US uses, our signals are often not very reliable or easy to get with an indoor antenna). And even if you do, those free OTA channels won't be integrated in with the rest of your channels on your cable box. And you won't be able to record shows from the free OTA channels unless you have a separate OTA DVR (e.g. TiVo, Tablo, etc.), which relatively few folks are going to bother with.
The locals know that a big majority of their viewers are paying for the convenience of receiving them via an MVPD. And if too many Americans "cut the cord" by ditching MVPDs/vMVPDs and instead embrace free OTA reception, that would cause a major decrease in retransmission fees for locals and their big network partners. If that happened, my guess is that the big networks would just walk away from their local affiliates. Disney (ABC), Comcast (NBC), CBS and Fox aren't going to give away their content for free to too many people. There's too much money to lose by doing that. They'd just switch to being national pay cable channels with OTT streaming operations too, basically the same way that HBO and Showtime operate (although maybe with lower subscription prices offset by advertising).
