How soon before HD takes over

[lineman3030]

I'm a new member to this site, so this my have already been discussed. How soon are they (the powers that be) projecting that it will be before HD will be the majority and SD will be the minority? When this happens will the prices of packages come down, go up, or stay the same? Just curious, and sorry if this has already been discussed before.:

 

[Jolard]

That is a really hard thing to answer. The digital transition will occur in 2009, i.e. analog over the air broadcasts will stop. However this does not mean that all channels have to be in HD, as many of us around the country have already seen.

That is just for OTA.

For Satellite (and cable) it may take a lot longer than that. They will possibly always have low bandwidth channels, showing content that they deem doesn't need HD, and there are enough channels on the satellite that I think the transition will take a long time.

So Networks? I would bet by 2009 by far most (if not all) networks will be transmitted and shown in HD. For lots of the basic cable kind of channels? Well who knows, could be 10 years, could be 20.

 

[bhelms]

There's another aspect to this discussion: Even if the various channels install and activate HD capabilities (and the providers carry them) there is still the significant quesion of the programming available in HD. Nothing sickens me more than to, for instance, watch ESPNHD with the sidebars and obvious SD content in between. Much of the programming available now and in the foreseeable future is strictly SD. There are some upconversions that look reasonable, but nothing available today can put back what wasn't recorded in the first place. Also - many "HD" channels are clearly not b'casting in HD 24/7, mostly just in prime time. And the channels that deal primarily with historical programming (e.g., Nick) may not ever install HD capabilities. Finally, tho' perhaps a different discussion is warranted, there is material that should IMO never be allocated the resources to be carried in HD (QVC, infommercials, most "talking heads", etc.)! To be sure, HD programming will increase, but how quickly? Will it catch-up to and keep up with the increasing capacity to carry it? IMO, that may also take quite a while.

Summary - programming in HD is still fairly scarce and it has a way to go to catch up with the available capacity to carry it.

Welcome lineman3030, BTW...

 

[cincyguy2k4]

I say you are looking at 10 years out before you see mostly HD or upconverted SD content.

You wont get a lot of people buying HDTV's until they start to be as cheap if not cheaper than SD sets, therefore you wont have a lot of people really wanting it.

Also even after the 2009 cutoff TV makers can simply sell SD sets with digital tuners which will slow the transition even more. Simple fact is that HD is still a niche market.

HDDVD and Bluray are slowing the adoption even more by having a competing standard. No one wants the next BetaMax, not even most high end consumers.

Finally you have a lot of consumers that dont understand the widescreen aspect of HDTV. For example my dad doesnt want widescreen because he says he doesnt like a chopped off picture. To make matters worse they dont understand that if you watch a widescreen DVD on a HDTV, not only is the picture quality not as great as they would expect, but it still has the bars on top and bottom.

HDTV has a long ways to go.

 

[Tom Bombadil]

Earlier this year the Yankee Group, a market research group, projected that there would be 80 million USA households with HDTV capable sets by 2010.

Projected number by the end of 2006 is 32.9 million.

The CEA is projecting 36.5M by the end of 2006.

Approximately 40% of all HDTVs sold are not used to receive HDTV programming.

So there is some definite growth here and we are going to see a lot of activity from both channel and programming providers over the next two years to offer HD programming.

 

[Barry Erick]

Networks will be close to 100% before 2009. That and the public will for more and more local. Right now, the most that locals do is to pass network HD. Shows like Wheel of Fortune carry clout and are putting pressure on locals to carry it. Just to do that could be as simple (and cheap) as getting a new satellite receiver and a vhs-HD digital machine (I said cheap) or replacing millions of dollars worth of non-hd equipment and making the plant hd. Presure from the public when more and more syndicated shows are HD but not shown, or they are shown on one station in HD and then they move to another station and are shown in SD, the public will be heard. And, at least in our market, you won't believe how fast a plant can change when the competition changes.