Netflix Looking to Take NFL’s Sunday Afternoon Games from Fox and CBS in Next Media Deal

[savarese04]

Netflix is no where near that, there are still 2 Billion Households globally, that does not have Netflix.

Just last quarter, added 20 Million subs, 39 Million for the year.



60 Million Households ( out of 131 Million) in the United States, do not subscribe to Netflix.


Actually, having the NFL, might get that older crowd, that says Traditional TV is enough for them, I would assume they are part of that 60 Million Households that do not subscribe.

Just because households exist, doesn't mean they are untapped. There is a limit to Netflix's TAM. There are many households that 1) have no interest in screen-based entertainment, 2) cannot afford Netflix, or 3) do not have requisite internet bandwidth to acquire Netflix, among other reasons.

My point still stands that acquiring NFL rights is likely less about acquiring customers and more about it being a cheaper way of adding content rather than developing new tv shows.

 

[Joe The Dragon]

The NFL does not care if they are shown in a local market or not, they care about the billions they would receive from Netflix.

If they cared about the Networks and local broadcast, they would not be taking the option to get out of the contracts with them.

By 2030, when the new contract takes affect, the Networks/Cable Channels will be in a world of hurt, due to cord cutting, per sub fees greatly reduced, advertising revenue that has moved over to streaming.

It is quite doubtful, they would be able to afford what the NFL will be asking for.

they and the teams may care about local viewers. The teams maybe ok will all of market games being on pay tv.
The super bowl can make it on ad spots alone as well.

 

[Bruce]

Just because households exist, doesn't mean they are untapped. There is a limit to Netflix's TAM. There are many households that 1) have no interest in screen-based entertainment,

And having the NFL is a way of attracting those type of subscribers.

2) cannot afford Netflix,

Since you can receive Netflix for $8 a month, I really doubt that.

You could receive a lot of the streaming services, the with ads plan, would be under $50 a month, still a lot less expensive then a monthly Pay TV subscription.

3) do not have requisite internet bandwidth to acquire Netflix, among other reasons.

92% have access to broadband in the United States.

My point still stands that acquiring NFL rights is likely less about acquiring customers and more about it being a cheaper way of adding content rather than developing new tv shows.

Since there are so many they do not have Netflix, both here (60 Million Households) and worldwide ( 2 Billion), I would believe the answer is all of the above, more content ( I would not call it cheaper) and, hopefully, more subscribers.

But, the other point is, who can afford it in 4 years, not many options.

A lot of folks here, keeps bringing up Broadcast Networks like they used to be, had all the per sub fees, the majority of advertising revenue, the biggest ratings.

But that was 8 years ago, today, revenue lessens every year, on top of the over 30 Million that have left already, they still lose 6 Million more per sub fees every year, along with the advertising revenue that has gone to streaming.

They will not be able to afford it in 4 years.

 

[Bruce]

they and the teams may care about local viewers. The teams maybe ok will all of market games being on pay tv.

Local Audiences cannot watch on Netflix?

 

[Hyper Casey]

I am holding out hope, and fully expect that the big Networks FOX, NBC, CBS will out-bid Netflix and the others for the Sunday afternoon games. The one thing about the NFL, all my life has been that is is FREE Over The Air. Not that way with NHL, NBA, MLB, or College anymore. I think i get to watch the Red Wings for free 2 times a year, same with the Pistons. The NFL is still the one league you can watch almost all the games for FREE. I think that is one of the reasons it is so popular. And that business model has worked for many, many years, even now in the new streaming world. That said, i think we will see more games go to streaming. Netflix will get some more games, but i think a small package. And i believe the majority of the games will stay on the big 3 letter networks. Just my opinion, and maybe a overly hopeful one, but hey, i like to live my life that way. And i also think no matter what the local audience will get the local game free on OTA.

 

[zippyfrog]

I don't know the ins and outs, but I thought part of the NFL TV deal setup to have games on OTA in the local markets was to avoid something with antitrust laws. That if the games were to be taken off OTA in local markets, then the NFL could potentially lose the antitrust exemption and then each NFL team would set their own media package locally, like the other sports do. And the reason the NFL can get so much is they sell all their rights together - which if they couldn't do, some of the smaller market teams would get a lot less than the larger market teams. (I am out of my league when it comes to the law, but I feel like I read something to this effect).

 

[Jimbo]

i've already downgraded to the 7.99 netflix plan because the current ad-free/4k plan is obscene now for the level of content i watch on netflix. No way would i want to pay more.

Also, there's a max audience. at some point you approach max saturation and there's no more subscribers to be had. i can't imagine there are too many people in the US that don't already have netflix that having football will cause them to be first time subs. i am thinking this is less about getting new subs and more about retaining old subs and not having to develop new "original content" to maintain those subs.

I would never have Netflix IF I had to have AD's.

 

[Jimbo]

Except Netflix is on record saying they are looking at carrying Sunday's games, they did not say NFC or AFC, just Sunday.

Second, there is no way they would give up games to the networks, because no matter your plan, there are going to be commercials, which means more revenue for Netflix.

Ideas like this Change Daily ...
They may end up having something entirely different by the time something like this happens.

 

[Joe The Dragon]

Local Audiences cannot watch on Netflix?

for free and no internet needed?

 

[b4pjoe]

How would these games on Netflix affect NFL Sunday Ticket? Would it be just be like Fox and CBS does now and not have any effect on NFL ST?

 

[Foxbat]

I canceled Netflix two years ago as I did not see the price for the 4K version worth it with the current offerings. I think we might have subbed for "Wednesday" and let it lapse after the finale.

I despise Ads during premium content (like Netflix or Max). Watching YouTube is almost impossible with all the wildly inappropriate Ads I see (Google should know everything about me, I have no pets so I flag Chewie or PetSmart or Dog/Cat Food commercials as "inappropriate". The latest insult to my eyeballs are the TikTok influencers and their style. I don't need to clear up my acne. Again, Google should know my age and our children are not the right age for their products.

And I am not a concealed carry prospect, nor do I want a Food Card because I have Medicare (Elon and DoGE should go after those scam artists.) I don't have Type 2 Diabetes so lose the Jardienz ads, or the countless other medical treatment ads. Nor will I get a 10,000 lumen "Tactical" anything, let alone anything designed for or from warfare.

I will watch EV ads, Google. I will subsidize your pool of servers if you show me countless ads for EVs, EVSEs, or anything having to do with EV transportation. Or, most car ads. Everything else is a waste of my time and a loss from potential advertisers.

As for the NFL on Netflix, if they did it without any commercials, I might consider. Maybe the NFL can adapt the rest of the World's football rules and have 30 minute halves, no stoppages (add time taken for injuries or penalties). Maybe the players would have to lose weight to be able to keep up with the hurried pace of this new game format. Then, they wouldn't need to armor-up as contact wouldn't be as punishing. A 300 lb. offensive linesman wouldn't be able to ruin the career of a talented running back because he fell with all his weight on the runner's leg(s).




'Kay, I kinda ran with that one a bit too far. Bottom Line - NFL on Netflix for $25/mo as part of Netflix's regular 4K package, I would probably do it. $35/mo or more? No way.

 

[Bruce]

I don't know the ins and outs, but I thought part of the NFL TV deal setup to have games on OTA in the local markets was to avoid something with antitrust laws. That if the games were to be taken off OTA in local markets, then the NFL could potentially lose the antitrust exemption and then each NFL team would set their own media package locally, like the other sports do. And the reason the NFL can get so much is they sell all their rights together - which if they couldn't do, some of the smaller market teams would get a lot less than the larger market teams. (I am out of my league when it comes to the law, but I feel like I read something to this effect).

The antitrust exemption from the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 quite possibly, if not most likely, does not apply to NFL games sold through web-based services.

From here-

As broadcasting patterns shift, potential antitrust liability looms for the NFL

For the most part, the NFL sails through clear, open waters.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[savarese04]

And having the NFL is a way of attracting those type of subscribers.

no it is not. they have no interest in screen-based entertainment. these sare people who do not have tvs in their homes and do not watch the NFL now. They are not going to buy Netflix no matter what netflix says

Since you can receive Netflix for $8 a month, I really doubt that.

You could receive a lot of the streaming services, the with ads plan, would be under $50 a month, still a lot less expensive then a monthly Pay TV subscription.

there are people who literally cannot afford food week to week. Your quoting "i doubt that" and running back to your party line of $50/mo is less than pay tv, is both disingenuous and insensitive.

For someone who has been in the industry for as long as you say you have, I'm a little surprised that you don't realize that TAM is not simply "x households exist = 100% TAM" Netflix's market is capping out. current growth is because they have been effective at password crackdowns. As the younger generation grows up and the older generation dies off, netflix is in big trouble. Adding the NFL won't help them

 

[Bruce]

no it is not. they have no interest in screen-based entertainment. these sare people who do not have tvs in their homes and do not watch the NFL now. They are not going to buy Netflix no matter what netflix says

So, you are trying to say out of the 60 Million Households here in the states, then the 2 Billion worldwide, that do not have Netflix, there is not some potential for subscriber growth ?

there are people who literally cannot afford food week to week. Your quoting "i doubt that" and running back to your party line of $50/mo is less than pay tv, is both disingenuous and insensitive.

First off, I grew up in total poverty, so please, do not make this thread about me and by calling me insensitive to those who do not have means.

And yes, $8.00 is not that much is today's world, that is only $2 a week for a lot of entertainment that Netflix provides.

For someone who has been in the industry for as long as you say you have, I'm a little surprised that you don't realize that TAM is not simply "x households exist = 100% TAM" Netflix's market is capping out. current growth is because they have been effective at password crackdowns.

But you are missing the point, Netflix just gained 20 Million in a quarter, 39 Million for the year, up from 30 Million gained in 2023 ( which was when password crackdown started, May 2023 here, earlier in other countries).

That shows interest in Netflix is increasing, a 9 Million increase over the previous year, is pretty good for a service, that some believe, cannot gain anymore subscribers.

As the younger generation grows up and the older generation dies off, netflix is in big trouble. Adding the NFL won't help them

There are population gains every year, for example, in 2024, the world had about 132 million births and 62 million deaths, resulting in a population increase of 70 million people.

So, yes, as the older folks die off, there are more younger folks replacing them.

How many people die and how many are born each year?

Changes in the world population are determined by two metrics: the number of babies born and the number of people dying.

ourworldindata.org

 

[savarese04]

So, you are trying to say out of the 60 Million Households here in the states, then the 2 Billion worldwide, that do not have Netflix, there is not some potential for subscriber growth ?

I did not say that at all. This thread is about the NFL and the rest of the world does not care about American football, as much as the NFL would like (or wishes) to pretend it does. I'm saying that adding the NFL, at the cost of godknowshowmuch money, is not going to appreciably increase their subscriber base.

Also US population growth, while still net positive, is declining rapidly - a rate that is especially low compared to the rest of the world