Should at&t sell DIRECT?

[Juan]

You would hope.

Charlie style

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[Soccernut]

Looks like at&t is playing Russian roulette.

 

[TheRatPatrol]

A merger wouldn't be that bad if it was Directv taking over Dish and getting rid of Charlie and all the upper management in Denver.

That would be one hell of a dish

99/101/103/110/119/129 plus all the reverse band stuff.

Better get some 4K channels and all the local sub channels

And a 16 tuner DVR.

 

[ScottChez]

Prediction

1. Directv SAT- I
think the long term plan is Directv SAT for 4K channels in 2020, lots of them, plus any Sub that cant get High Speed internet of 60 Mps or faster for the Directv Now (what ever it will be called).

2. Directv NOW-
I think the Directv Now version will be the LITE version, less features, less channel, no 4K and a less cost.

3. Hybrid Solution- (NEW)
With the new LCC Local Channel connector AND the Cheddar channel on Directv SAT which is reall a web based channel not sat, they will offer a Hybrid solution. Bring your Own Locals and stream a lot from the web, but still get a reall good DVR and High Quality Cable package and a half way less cost (in the middle).
THis new solution will use those new Steaming boxes to connect to the Directv Now System OR the current Directv SAT Genie HS17.
Customer can start with the NOW, but later upgrade buy just adding the SAT and the local in house server HS17 (or HS27) as the user guide called it.

4. HBO
ATT/Directv owns this. This plan with all the many 4K channels starts once HBO offers all their 4K channels, if it is not in 2020, then they wait till it is could be 2022.
This will trigger the 4K waver just like it did for the HD wave (HBO and Sports).

Hence the Good, Better, Best marketing plan for 2020.

The Directv SAT version will be for those that one the best HD picture, with none of that bad cable compression or forced downgrade of channels to 720p (Comcast) and not the full resolution trick like Dish does to save on bandwidth.
It will be marketed as good better and best. I think in 2020 Directv will even INCREASE the HD quality as they draw down the old SD and MPEG2 as they will have lots of free space with that in the reverse band.

Yes Directv will sell off the un used sat space but not to Dish, contract in sale will be no direct conflict for 10 years on the sat, maybe they will even lease it.

Big Companies plan things out like this for many years, I am sure they have a plan but it is top secret, as Dish would love to see it. Opps did someone just leak it . Google is your friend.

 

[slice1900]

And a 16 tuner DVR.

Sorry you wouldn't get that. You already HAVE a 16 tuner DVR, the HS17. Directv would still be using transponder bonding for reverse band, and still have the limitations on tuner allocation that imposes.

 

[Claude Greiner]

And a 16 tuner DVR.

My TiVo works just fine with 6 tuners

 

[Claude Greiner]

I do have a prediction for this year.

I say Directv works out a deal with Dish for the 11 Transponders at 119 and the 3 at 110.

In addition, I say Dish gives up these lease for 129 at the same time.

You have Directv telling everyone 119 is going away. Dish putting off renewing the lease for 129. Directv mirroring everything from 119/95 on the reverse band

 

[Claude Greiner]

To further this prediction even under this scenario dish would have 64 transponders on western arc instead of 82, however Dish is using 64 transponders on eastern arc without an issue

 

[Claude Greiner]

Oh yeah and second prediction

Both providers will begin shutting down SD locals
this year.

SD regular programming is not going away on any provider. Instead it will be converted to MPEG4 8psk and likely crammed on 3-4 transponders. It will remain this way until 1 of 3 things happen.

1) The HD access charge goes away completely.

2) There is a solution for commercial properties to transmit HD in the clear over coax without encryption.

3) There is an option or software update for receivers to down resolution the HD channels to SD so the providers can continue to charge for HD access.

 

[slice1900]

I do have a prediction for this year.

I say Directv works out a deal with Dish for the 11 Transponders at 119 and the 3 at 110.

In addition, I say Dish gives up these lease for 129 at the same time.

You have Directv telling everyone 119 is going away. Dish putting off renewing the lease for 129. Directv mirroring everything from 119/95 on the reverse band

Dish filed for a license renewal for the satellite at 129 last month, so they are probably renewing it after all. I can't post a link to it since the FCC site redirects to an info page about the government shutdown now

Directv can't shut down 119 until the latter part of the year, so at minimum Dish would need to renew 129 for another year even if they have reached a deal. Given AT&T's debt load, it makes sense for Directv to come to a deal.

 

[Claude Greiner]

Dish filed for a license renewal for the satellite at 129 last month, so they are probably renewing it after all. I can't post a link to it since the FCC site redirects to an info page about the government shutdown now

Directv can't shut down 119 until the latter part of the year, so at minimum Dish would need to renew 129 for another year even if they have reached a deal. Given AT&T's debt load, it makes sense for Directv to come to a deal.

If a deal is reached, I wonder if AT&T would take a cash offer or trade dish for wireless spectrum.

Another year for 129 would make sense if they wanted to do a transition.

 

[slice1900]

Oh yeah and second prediction

Both providers will begin shutting down SD locals
this year.

SD regular programming is not going away on any provider. Instead it will be converted to MPEG4 8psk. It will remain this way until 1 of 3 things happen.

1) The HD access charge goes away completely.

2) There is a solution for commercial properties to transmit HD in the clear over coax without encryption.

3) There is an option or software update for receivers to down resolution the HD channels to SD so the providers can continue to charge for HD access.

According to documents KVH was distributing, Directv will drop the SD duplicates entirely, and some HD channels will move to 101. No idea what Dish's plans are, but given their bandwidth constraints, keeping any sort of SD duplicates around would be stupid.

From other Directv documents I've seen regarding the transition for certain commercial account types, they will use strategy #3. There were programs such as the "H25 analog swap program" where they will swap out SD receivers for an H25, and if the customer wishes to continue not paying for HD they will only work via the analog out (presumably they mean using the composite dongle) Not sure what they are doing for residential customers, but you can be sure they won't drop the HD fee for those who still pay it - grandfathering of billing works both ways, after all...

Those documents were clear that they are still on schedule to drop all MPEG2 SD content before the end of 2019.

 

[slice1900]

If a deal is reached, I wonder if AT&T would take a cash offer or trade dish for wireless spectrum

Doubtful they'd want spectrum, AT&T only wants it if it is on a band they already have or is nationwide. Dish doesn't have any on existing AT&T bands, and nationwide spectrum would be worth far more than whatever this 110/119 deal would. I think AT&T will take all the cash they can get right now so analysts will worry just a bit less about all the debt they're carrying.

 

[Claude Greiner]

According to documents KVH was distributing, Directv will drop the SD duplicates entirely, and some HD channels will move to 101. No idea what Dish's plans are, but given their bandwidth constraints, keeping any sort of SD duplicates around would be stupid.

From other Directv documents I've seen regarding the transition for certain commercial account types, they will use strategy #3. There were programs such as the "H25 analog swap program" where they will swap out SD receivers for an H25, and if the customer wishes to continue not paying for HD they will only work via the analog out (presumably they mean using the composite dongle) Not sure what they are doing for residential customers, but you can be sure they won't drop the HD fee for those who still pay it - grandfathering of billing works both ways, after all...

Those documents were clear that they are still on schedule to drop all MPEG2 SD content before the end of 2019.

I'm doing analog swaps right now. The customers not paying for HD can only get the SD channnels.

 

[Jimbo]

I do have a prediction for this year.

I say Directv works out a deal with Dish for the 11 Transponders at 119 and the 3 at 110.

In addition, I say Dish gives up these lease for 129 at the same time.

You have Directv telling everyone 119 is going away. Dish putting off renewing the lease for 129. Directv mirroring everything from 119/95 on the reverse band

I doubt that they would start using the 119 Sat for any more than tHey already do ...
If they were to do that, they would have to go out to each sub that will potentially get anything off the 119 and put up a different LNB again.
They are trying to reduce the truck rolls ...

 

[Juan]

I doubt that they would start using the 119 Sat for any more than tHey already do ...
If they were to do that, they would have to go out to each sub that will potentially get anything off the 119 and put up a different LNB again.
They are trying to reduce the truck rolls ...

just a send a software update that tells the receiver to ignore 119

 

[Jimbo]

just a send a software update that tells the receiver to ignore 119

What about the 10,000s of dishes that are out there that only have access to the 99, 101 and 103 ?

 

[ScottChez]

All good predictions. Keep it up.
Interesting to see what the future might bring. TV is a changing with all the cord cutting reducing subs. Things have to change to keep up.

 

[nelson61]

Dish probably has a few million newer canceled customer boxes laying in their warehouse so they definitely would not have a prohibitively expensive box replacement cost if the got rid of sd

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[TheRatPatrol]

Sorry you wouldn't get that. You already HAVE a 16 tuner DVR, the HS17. Directv would still be using transponder bonding for reverse band, and still have the limitations on tuner allocation that imposes.

Oh Slice, I know, I know. One can dream can't they?